In this series, we’ll be looking at active or recently retired players with a borderline Hall of Fame case and whether or not we believe they will make the Hall. Some important things we’ll reference are Jay Jaffe’s JAWS system, the ‘Rule of 2,000’ and previous Hall of Fame voting trends. If might help to brush up on some of those things if you are unfamiliar with any of those things.
First up, will be a trio of catchers: Joe Mauer, Yadier Molina and Buster Posey. The catching position has been notoriously difficult to gain election, as there are only 16 backstops enshrined to date (the second lowest of any position besides 3B at 15).
Over the next few days, we’ll look at all three, starting today with Mauer.
Of the three catchers we’ll be looking at, Joe Mauer clearly has the most solid Hall of Fame case, in my opinion. He’s one of only a handful of catchers to ever win a league MVP award and his three career batting titles and equal number of Gold Gloves sure do look nice on that HoF resume. But is he a lead-pipe lock for enshrinement?
Not so fast.
With only 7,883 innings played at catcher, Mauer actually has fewer innings at the position than either Posey or Molina – and quite a few less than other catchers who have received Hall nods recently, players like Ted Simmons and Ivan ‘Pudge’ Rodriguez. In fact, besides a token appearance in his final game as a professional, Mauer would not don the ‘tools of ignorance’ behind home plate for the final five seasons of his 15 year MLB career. As a first-baseman, or even a C/1B combo, Mauer’s pedestrian power numbers likely wouldn’t put him in the discussion for the Hall, so how do we balance the two-thirds of his career at C with the final third at 1B?
It’s complicated.
But before we tackle that very pressing question, let’s first determine whether or not Mauer’s numbers are HOF-worthy if we only consider him a catcher. If not, there's not much reason to settle the C/1B debate. I think the answer here is a pretty clear: yes. He not only has an MVP to his name, which only four other backstops can claim over the past 50 years (Bench twice, Rodriguez, Munson, Posey and Mauer), Mauer also has 50% of all batting titles won by the catching position with three. He's the only catcher ever to replicate the feat and also alone in terms of winning a batting title as a catcher in the American League (notoriously the more offensive league).
Mauer clears the ‘Rule of 2000’ by having notched his 2000th MLB hit back in 2018 and his career OBP mark of .388 is the highest by any catcher with at least 7000 plate appearances. His oWAR (offensive WAR) mark of 53.0 would be the highest mark ever achieved by a catcher not elected to the Hall of Fame if he were to fall short of the necessary votes – and his JAWS number has him as the 7th best catcher of all-time.
Joe Mauer was a prolific offensive player, even without great power numbers, at an offensively challenged position. Had he moved to 1B or another less physical taxing position earlier in his career, I think he had the ability to reach the 3,000-hit club (a la Craig Biggio) seeing as he averaged 185 base hits over his career for a 162 game season. He may have been overshadowed at times due to other players’ gaudy HR statistics, but the Minnesota-native who grew up to star for his childhood team was still an incredibly valuable and talented player at the most demanding position on the diamond.
When solely thinking of him as a catcher, Mauer is a Hall of Fame lock.
But as we mentioned at the top, Mauer spent only 7,883 innings at the catching position with another 5,136 coming at 1B. And when you start to think of him as 2/3 C and 1/3 1B, Mauer’s case begins to weaken. For example, his oWAR mark of 53.0, gaudy for a C, would place him just between Tony Perez and George Sisler at #27 all-time among 1B and while both Sisler and Perez earned enshrinement, that number would fall short of notable 1Bs who did not earn enough votes like Fred McGriff, Will Clark and (as of yet) Todd Helton. And the lack of power at 1B would be a real hurdle. Mauer's 143 career HRs would have him edge out John Jaha (141) for the 121st best mark by a 1st-sacker. His 923 career RBI (15th all-time among catchers) would rank him tied for 84th among 1B. Even his 428 career doubles would fail to place him among the top 30 1B of all-time, whereas that number places him 3rd among catchers.
Clearly, Mauer’s case rests entirely on how the BWWAA (or if it gets that far, the Veteran’s Committee) decides to classify his position. If they lean towards his years spent behind the plate, he’s arguably one of the 5 best offensive catchers of all-time, albeit in a shorter career than others. But if he’s viewed more as a C/1B combo, he’ll probably have a hard time cracking the 75% threshold, particularly early on during his eligibility.
Our theory?
Joe Mauer is going to be thought of as a catcher. He was the #1 overall pick as a catcher, came up as a catcher and that’s where most Baseball Writers are going to remember him. He wasn't moved off the position because he was a butcher defensively, his body failed him and the Twins needed to try to keep his bat in the lineup because they were paying him a lot of money.
Mauer has an MVP and three batting titles as a catcher, no one else in baseball history can make that claim. And his defense behind the plate was somewhat underrated, even though he was recognized with those three Gold Gloves. His 2009 MVP season was the 2nd best offensive season by a catcher in terms of wRC+ behind Mike Piazza’s 1997 (and his BA and OBP were the best posted by a C since World War II) and his Twins teams made the playoffs in four of Mauer’s 15 seasons, including three division titles in five years.
Another key factor for Mauer, is that by the time he is eligible for the ballot in 2024, many of the names from the PED-era who are currently clogging the ballot will have seen their 10-years of eligibility expire and their cases will move to the Veteran's Committee. With those types of players no longer splitting the vote, it will be easier for players like Mauer to find votes and earn enshrinement.
Joe Mauer was a player like we haven’t seen in a long time, a true-hitting backstop capable of carrying a high batting average and getting on base at a truly elite clip, regardless of position as evidenced by his .388 mark leaving him tied with notable hitting machine Tony Gwynn. While Mauer only ever eclipsed 20 HRs once (his 2009 MVP season); Mauer’s ability to make contact, spray the ball to all fields and test the defense is further illustrated by his career .341 BABIP (batting average on balls in play).
As the game has moved further towards the big strikeout and HR numbers of today, Mauer was a throwback who kept his K-rate in check (career 13%) and drew his fair share of walks while carrying a .300+ career batting average. In a lot of ways, Joe Mauer was Tony Gwynn in a catcher's body, 6'5" and 225lbs.
Had he not battled knee and concussion issues and remained behind the plate, Mauer would likely have been in consideration for first ballot enshrinement. But even without spending his whole career behind the dish, he’ll likely hear his name called in Cooperstown before his ten years on the ballot are up.
Verdict?
Joe Mauer: Hall of Famer
Got a player you'd like to see get the Hall of Fame: Yea or Nay - treatment? Email us at 3playpodcast@gmail.com and we'll tackle their case in an upcoming article.
Thanks for reading!
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